The Nexus Between Climate Change, Conflict, and Displacement: The Case of South Sudan

The relationship between climate change and violent conflicts is often overlooked due to its indirect nature. Although it might not seem an obvious nexus, climate-related change might influence a conflict’s exacerbation under certain circumstances. Some examples demonstrate how local conflicts around land and water may be triggered by climate-related factors, especially in societies that are highly dependent on natural resources. What is more, the outcome of this interaction might also lead to mass displacement and vice-versa. Climate displacement can bring diverse and neighboring communities with different ethnicities, cultural beliefs, and identities in contact. This forced contact due to external factors such as climate disasters can potentially be a driver for conflict.

Considering this context, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (2015) urged for global cooperation and recognized the potential of climate change as a threat to societies, pointing out the risk of interstate conflict and polarization. Moreover, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has also stated that climate change can be an indirect factor that influences violent conflicts and amplifies the other drivers of these conflicts (poverty, economic crisis, etc.). The IPCC concluded that climate change not only can exacerbate gender inequalities, the undermining of livelihoods, or the destruction of infrastructure, but it also can lead to sudden population displacement. [ii]

One specific example of the intersection between climate displacement and armed conflict happened in Darfur, where a long period of famine killed almost 100,000 people between 1983 and 1984. This situation triggered climate migration to Southern Darfur, disrupting the life routine of the population in the area. The contact between the Arab nomads who moved there to search for more fertile lands and the fur tribes who have settled farmers in the region produced a conflict embedded in ethnic disparities. 

Likewise, in many African regions, the consequences of climate change have provided the base for conflict patterns, especially the rise of violence for contested space due to forced migration.

That was the case in The Horn of Africa (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti), where droughts have impacted more than 13 million people, leading to forced migration, ethnic tensions, and in some cases, terrorism. [iii]

Another example is currently happening in South Sudan, where more than 1.6 million people have been internally displaced due to prolonged conflict. Being a vulnerable country to climate change due to its location, South Sudan’s humanitarian crises and civil war have worsened with climate disasters. Nowadays, in addition to the Covid-19 pandemic that has increased food insecurity in the country due to the restrictions and interruptions in trade and transport, droughts and floods have also impacted South Sudan’s livelihoods leading to resource scarcity and competition between communities for these resources. 

For instance, in 2020, more than 700,000 people were affected by severe flooding in the Jonglei and Eastern Nile states, forcing migrant herders to seek new livestock routes into the Equatoria regions, which created tensions between communities. As a result of the current context in the country, this year, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) has highlighted the lack of accessibility to basic services in South Sudan due to violent conflicts, flooding, and the Covid-19. [v]

Furthermore, The United Nations Security Council has made the following recommendations to The United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) and South Sudan’s Government for reducing security risks and increasing peace:

• To establish an early warning and emergency response center with research institutions and experts in the country to support and build Government capacity and partnership with the rest of the UN system. 
• The Government should produce regular climate-security reviews integrating data on climate, conflict, migration, and food security.
• UNMISS should support the Ministry of Environment and Forestry to maintain, upgrade and establish new weather stations in the country.
• The deployment of a senior UN Environmental Programme climate-security advisor in UNMISS.
• Investment in personnel training in the areas of human-related conflict, gendered effects of climate stress, analysis, and planning. [vi]

The importance of recognizing the nexus between climate change, conflict, and displacement is that it can bring a more integral analysis of an event or specific situation and lead to better solutions for improving the conditions of populations affected by these three factors. The acknowledgment made by UN OCHA and the UN Security Council of the climate change influences involved in the current conflict in South Sudan is an appropriate step towards the implementation of better strategies to solve the conflicts in the area. From now on, it will be crucial to keep an eye open on how these recommendations are transformed into realities and continue to pay attention to the climate disaster’s influence on other conflicts around the world

Reference

Jose Guillermo Ricalde Perez

Climate Researcher & Writer, Act for Displaced

A current student from the Erasmus+ European Master in Migration and Intercultural Relations (EMMIR). I also completed a Bachelor’s Degree in Law and a Master’s in Human Rights and the Rights of Native Peoples in Mexico. My interests include human rights, gender equality, decolonization, LGBTI rights, migration, and climate displacement.